Why Gold Moved?
The evidence around gold's latest monthly move — what changed, what else changed over the same months, and what the available data cannot tell you. This page reports measured changes side by side; it does not claim to know what moved the price.
Market move
Gold's monthly average price fell 3.67% from Jun 2026 to Jul 2026, from 4,228.00 USD per troy ounce to 4,073.00 USD per troy ounce.
Monthly average prices, not a single day's close. Historical figures; not a current price.
Potential contributing factors
U.S. interest-rate series that changed by at least 0.10 percentage points over the same months. They are listed only for having moved over the same period — GMI does not measure whether, or how much, any of them affected gold.
- The 10-year Treasury yield rose 0.13 percentage points over the same months, from 4.47% to 4.60%.
- The 10-year real yield (TIPS) rose 0.17 percentage points over the same months, from 2.18% to 2.35%.
Supporting evidence
- Silver's monthly average fell 11.84% over the same months — the same direction as gold.
- The Fed funds effective rate changed by 0.00 pp (from 3.63% to 3.63%), below the 0.10 percentage points GMI uses to list a factor.
| Series | Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed funds effective rate | 3.63% | 3.63% | 0.00 pp |
| 10-year Treasury yield | 4.47% | 4.60% | +0.13 pp |
| 10-year real yield (TIPS) | 2.18% | 2.35% | +0.17 pp |
What we cannot establish from available data
- Cause and effect. Changes over the same months are shown side by side; GMI does not measure whether any of them moved gold, and moving together is not evidence that one did.
- Moves within the month or on a specific day. GMI's gold history is monthly average prices, so a sharp daily move and a quiet month can produce the same monthly figure.
- U.S. dollar movement. GMI does not hold a licensed U.S. dollar index for this comparison.
- Inflation releases. GMI does not currently hold a consumer-price series.
- Central-bank buying, ETF flows or physical demand. GMI does not hold these data.
- Headlines from Jul 2026. The news source could not be reached just now.
Sources and method
- Gold and silver: World Bank Commodity Price Data ("Pink Sheet"), Monthly Prices — https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Federal Funds Effective Rate [FEDFUNDS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis [GS10], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GS10
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 10-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis, Inflation-Indexed [FII10], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FII10
- This product uses the FRED® API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Method: the latest month GMI holds is compared with the month before it. Gold is described as essentially unchanged below 0.05%. Every statement on this page is generated by a fixed rule from these figures; no AI is used.
Headlines and links indexed by the GDELT Project (gdeltproject.org). Each headline links to its original publisher; GMI does not write, edit or summarise these articles. Source index: The GDELT Project (opens in a new tab).